Figure: Convective extreme event in Northern Chile (May 10-15, 2012). Skill score metric differences between WRF precipitation and GEFS data for all ensemble members.
Intensifying convective extremes are recorded and likely to worsen in the future due to an increase of the intensity and frequency of convective storms under the influence of climate change. Recent studies have shown regional climate models at convective-permitting scale could improve extreme precipitation forecast. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used at a convective-permitting resolution for ensemble-based, short-range forecasts for convective extremes in Chile. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts are used to establish WRF’s initial and lateral boundary conditions for selected extreme weather precipitation events. Preliminary simulation results show a significant improvement in total precipitation, as compared to the driving global forecast model and satellite observations. This work indicates that the usage of ensemble-based approach in WRF convective-permitting modeling simulations is an alternative option to better capture precipitation intensity and location in organized convective extremes, as well as the need to develop and stablish metric skills to evaluate the ensemble approach.