The University of Arizona Power Forecasting Group (PGF) creates high-resolution weather and power forecasts for electric utility companies in the Southwest, serving 2.7 GW of renewable energy power production daily. The PFG operationally forecast for multiple time frames from sub-hourly to hourly, to seven days in advance for use by wholesale energy schedulers, grid operators, day-ahead energy marketers, and real-time traders. An important aspect of these forecasts is that they present not just a single forecast number, but a range of outcomes that are derived from multiple runs of our customized high-resolution (1.8km) weather model. This provides end-users with an idea of forecast accuracy and attaches confidence to the forecast power output from variable energy resources. With these functions, our users can improve energy market trading strategies, schedule more efficient generators, reduce costs, defer maintenance, and optimize the use of battery storage.
Learn more about the UA Power Forecasting Group
During the North American Monsoon season, a daily model discussion is made for end-users. This technical discussion contains a general synopsis of the weather outlook, including a detailed look at model initialization accuracy, as well as the model performance from the previous day. In addition, a second discussion product covers expected utility-specific impacts such as rapid temperature changes for load forecasting, and for asset protection, a discussion of lightning threats, heavy rain/flash flooding, and high winds.
Read Mike Leuthold's Arizona WRF Discussion